To have a recession or not — that is the question. It also encompassed last week’s most important political news, notwithstanding all the public attention understandably focussed on the mass shootings in El Paso and Dayton. There is growing evidence of a possible recession. If one materialises, President Trump could lose his most powerful argument for reelection: a strong economy.
As is well-known, Trump’s approval ratings have stubbornly remained well below 50 percent. Typically, they’ve hovered in the high 30s and the low 40s. Even this weak support depends heavily on a buoyant economy.
Consider a Washington Post-ABC News poll taken in late June and early July. Trump’s overall approval rate was 44 percent, with 53 percent disapproving. But this poor showing
already included public support for his economic stewardship, with 51 percent approving and 42 percent disapproving. On every other issue, the public disapproved of his
On immigration, the public disapproved by a 40 percent-to-57 percent margin. (In all these comparisons, Trump’s approval number comes first.) On taxes, the margin was 42 percent to 49 percent. On health care, it was 38 percent to 54 percent. Here are the remaining results: On women’s issues, he trailed 32 percent to 56 percent; on abortion, 32 percent to 54 percent; on gun violence, 36 percent to 52 percent; on foreign policy, 40 percent to 55 percent; on climate change, 29 percent to 62 percent.
For Trump to lose his edge on the economy would clearly make it harder for him to win the general election. One obvious possibility would be perverse: Democrats might become so overconfident that they’d nominate someone too far to the left for most Americans.
For most of Trump’s presidency, the economic news has been favourable. At its current 3.7 percent, the unemployment rate hasn’t been lower since the 1960s.
In July, the present economic expansion became the longest in US history at slightly more than 10 years, as determined by the National Bureau of Economic Research. The NBER usually declares a recession if the economy contracts for two consecutive quarters — that is, unemployment rises and output falls.
What threatens this rosy picture is growing economic strife over trade. Last week was chaotic. Trump threatened to slap a 10 percent tariff on roughly $300 billion of Chinese exports to the United States. Rather than submit, China retaliated by letting its currency, the renminbi (RMB), depreciate below the symbolic rate of 7 to the dollar. A cheaper RMB would make China’s exports more competitive, offsetting some of the effect of Trump’s tariffs.
Trump responded by declaring China a “currency manipulator” — an ominous-sounding label that merely requires the administration to open nego-
tiations with China, something that it’s already doing and has led nowhere. Reflecting mounting uncertainty, the stock market fluctuated wildly during the week.
All this is curbing already-sluggish economic growth. Higher tariffs raise prices to consumers and businesses, reducing their purchasing power. In late July — before the most recent turmoil — the International Monetary Fund downgraded its economic outlook and warned that “risks to the forecast are mainly to the downside.” The main danger seems a loss of confidence that delays business investment and consumer spending. The plunge in interest rates is seen as evidence that investors are seeking safe havens for their money.
Most economists aren’t yet predicting a recession, but they’re drifting in that direction. Lewis Alexander of Nomura Securities International expects the economy’s growth to slow to less than 2 percent but not to enter recessionary territory. Joel Prakken of IHS Markit says its models put the odds of recession within a year at 1-in-3.
—The Washington Post
Robert Jacob Samuelson is a journalist for The Washington Post, where he has written about business and economic issues since 1977.